Jesper Rydén: Extreme values in nature – estimation of return levels

Abstract: In risk analysis, statistical analysis of extreme values plays a key role. An important notion is the so-called return level, which relates to quantiles of probability distributions. For instance, a 100-year temperature is the temperature that is exceeded on the average once in one hundred years. In the talk, examples of statistical techniques are given, based on a project funded by Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (Strålsäkerhetsmyndigheten) concerning sea levels at some locations close to nuclear power plants. In the introduction of the talk, an overview is provided of the activities in mathematics and statistics at campus Ultuna of SLU.