Helena Sofia Rodrigues: Modeling Dengue Prevention: A Macro-to-Micro Analysis of Control Strategies

Abstract:

Dengue fever is a widespread mosquito-borne viral disease, particularly prevalent in tropical and subtropical regions. While vaccine development is ongoing, one of the most effective strategies to combat the disease remains the prevention of mosquito bites.

This study explores dengue control strategies from both a macro and micro perspective, utilizing an epidemiological model based on a system of ordinary differential equations to analyze disease transmission and intervention effectiveness.

In the first part, a country-level optimal control problem is examined. Various control measures, including insecticide application, larvicide treatment, and public education campaigns, are simulated to assess their impact on reducing the number of infected individuals.

In the second part, a more localized, individual-focused approach is considered. Instead of large-scale interventions, household-level strategies to minimize human-mosquito contact are analyzed. The model incorporates parameters reflecting personal protective measures such as insect repellent use, treated clothing, and bed nets.

By integrating both perspectives, this study provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of different dengue prevention strategies, from large-scale public health policies to individual protective behaviour.